『保健医療科学』 2022 第71巻 第2号 p.186-188（2022年5月）
特集：最近の薬事行政の話題と改正GMP省令について
令和3年度研究課程 都道府県別喫煙率の経年変化と死因別死亡率の経年変化との関係
逸見治
The associations between secular changes in smoking rate and those in cause-specific death rates among prefectures in Japan
HEMMI Osamu
Abstract
Objectives: The objectives are to confirm the secular changes in smoking rate in each prefecture and in the whole country of Japan, and to ecologically examine the associations between secular changes in smoking rate and those in death rates from selected major causes among prefectures in Japan.
Methods: The data of smoking rate (SR) and cause-specific death rate (CSDR) were collected from e-Stat, which is a portal site of official statistics of Japan. The age-standardized SR and CSDR (standardized to the 2015 model population) were calculated between 2001-2019. The average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of age-standardized SR and CSDR in each prefecture and in the whole country of Japan were investigated from 2001 to 2019. Then, the associations between AAPC of the age-standardized SR and the AAPCs of age-standardized CSDR from selected major causes, were examined as an ecological study with all prefectures.
Results: Age-standardized SR in the whole country significantly decreased after 2001 in both genders, with AAPC of -2.8% (95% confidence interval: -2.9, -2.6) in men and -2.3% (-2.7, -1.9) in women. Age-standardized SR significantly decreased after 2001 in all prefectures in men, however in women it significantly decreased in prefectures excluding Aomori, Tottori, Saga and Kagoshima prefectures. The associations of age-standardized SR and CSDR among the prefectures were different according to the causes of death and genders. We confirmed that the correlations between AAPC of age-standardized SR and the AAPCs of age-standardized CSDR from all-cause (Pearsonʼs correlation coefficient: men 0.456, women 0.439), malignant neoplasms (men 0.359, women 0.431), and cerebrovascular distes from all-cause, malignant neoplasms, and cerebrovascular diseases in both genders.
Conclusion: The AAPC of age-standardized SR and AAPCs of the age-standardized death rates from all-cause, malignant neoplasms, and cerebrovascular diseases were significantly positively correlated among prefectures in both genders. Our analysis method would be one of the methods to confirm the association between secular changes in cause and result.
keywords: prefectures, age-standardized smoking rate, age-standardized cause-specific death rate, secular changes
